Project 4

Techniques for Extreme Rainfall and Flood Runoff Estimation

The EURO-FRIEND flood project covers both real time forecasting and simulation for design purposes (frequency estimation of peak flows and flood inundation) and scientific purposes (understanding runoff generation). On most of the studied catchments not only rainfall but also snow is important. A central point is an effort to estimate uncertainty in the predictions.
Recent research covered:

• assimilating satellite derived snow covered area in hydrological models
• uncertainty in flood inundation models
• flood frequency computation within the uncertainty framework
• spatial responses of hydrological models: understanding runoff generation
• FRMRC Wiki pages on Risk and Uncertainty
• floods in Norway
• Flash floods and geocomputation

Current activities follow to a large extent two important recent developments (Beven, 2006; 2007):

• Manifesto for the Equifinality Thesis
• working towards integrated environmental models of everywhere: uncertainty, data, and modelling as a learning process.

In the Manifesto a new development of the GLUE (Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology is introduced. It relies more on prior evaluations of model acceptability relative to observations and less on likelihood measures based on model residuals after a model has been run. This focuses, for example, on incommensurability errors (differences between the nature of observed and predicted variables due to scale and heterogeneity effects) and the effects of input errors, both of which are often ignored. Simulations (the parameter sets) which lie outside the range of the effective observational error are rejected.

With the ever increasing computer power and software (middleware) possibilities we will soon have computer models of everywhere, i.e. all places of interest will be represented. The data to constrain our models of particular places will assume greater importance than particular model structures. Models should be applied within a learning framework. Models, i.e. not only non-behavioural parameter sets but also the model structures which for a certain place are not in agreement with the observed data will be rejected.

Uncertainty in environmental modelling in general is summarised in a new book Beven, K J, (2009), Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future?, Routledge: London.

The project intends to continue the modelling work in the following direction (future plans).
Members of Techniques for Extreme Rainfall and Flood Runoff Estimation
Recent Publications by Project 4 Members

© 2016 EURO-FRIEND

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