WMO Manual on "the Estimation and Prediction of Low Flows"

Sub-Project

The manual on Low-flow Estimation and Prediction (WMO Operational Hydrology Report No. 50, 2009) is a contribution to the topic Disaster Mitigation: Floods and Droughts (hydrological aspects), WMO - Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (WMO-HWRP). It has been published in a new cluster of WMO publications consisting of several manuals and guidelines within the WMO Quality Management Framework in Hydrology. The manual adopted a practical approach and addresses practical aspects as opposed to an academic or theoretical approach and targets to meet the needs of National Hydrological and Meteorological Services. The manual complements the information available in the Guide to Hydrological Practices and in the WMO Technical Regulations. The "Guide to hydrological Practices", which was first published in 1965, has been revised and published (WMO-No. 168, 2009).

The key objective is to provide a state-of-the-art manual for estimating, predicting and forecasting low river flows at sites with and without observational data. The manual is intended to be used by operational agencies for predicting and forecasting low flows for a wide range of applications including national and regional water resource planning, abstraction management, public water supply design, setting in-stream flows, estimating the dilution of effluents, navigation, design of run of river hydropower schemes, design of irrigation schemes and operation of water resources during low flow conditions. The report enables the hydrological impacts of low flows to be mitigated and facilitates the design of flow monitoring facilities. The manual includes a worldwide inventory of existing methodologies and legal frameworks on low flow management and methods of low flow estimation prediction and forecasting. The manual also addresses issues such as the scarcity of data including ungauged basins and the implications of climate change. Current practices have been reviewed and the most suitable practices for different hydrological and hydrogeological regimes are recommended. Where appropriate new methodologies have been identified and evaluated. The market is primarily for operational agencies in developing countries.

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